5 DOT Regulations Most Likely to Be Issued by the End of 2026

Federal regulators have placed 19 trucking-related rulemakings on the calendar for possible publication before the end of 2026.

The list includes seven regulations in the final-rule stage, one supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking and 11 proposed rules while addressing commercial driver licensing, hours of service, accident reporting, ELD requirements, Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse records, medical qualifications, registration fees and other areas of motor carrier compliance.

However, publication dates in the federal Unified Agenda are estimates.

As of July 15, 2026, FMCSA’s Federal Register page did not yet show any of the following five rules among its pending publications.

The ranking below evaluates which rules appear most likely to be published between now and December 31, 2026.

How We Ranked the 19 Proposed DOT Regulations

CNS evaluated each rule using five factors:

1. Rulemaking stage: Final rules are generally closer to publication than proposed rules.
2. Projected publication date: Rules scheduled for July were ranked above those projected for November, all other factors being equal.
3. Regulatory complexity: Narrow or technical changes usually have fewer obstacles than broad policy changes.
4. Prior rulemaking history: Rules that finalize an existing interim rule or completed proposal are more advanced.
5. Administration priorities: Deregulatory actions that remove outdated or burdensome requirements may receive greater attention under the current administration.

Based on these factors, the following five regulations appear to have the strongest chance of publication before the end of 2026.

1. Rescinding Retroreflective Sheeting Requirements for Older Trailers

Estimated likelihood: Very high

FMCSA plans to rescind the retrofit requirement for retroreflective sheeting on trailers and semitrailers manufactured before December 1, 1993.

The agency’s reasoning is straightforward: most trailers manufactured before the 1993 compliance date are no longer operating on public highways, making the retrofit rule increasingly unnecessary. The final rule was projected for publication in July.

Why This Rule Ranks First

This is one of the narrowest and least complicated regulations on the list. It would remove an outdated requirement rather than establish a new compliance program.

The rule also:

• Is already in the final-rule stage.
• Has a limited population of affected trailers.
• Fits the administration’s broader deregulatory objectives.
• Should not require major state systems, carrier technology or enforcement procedures to be changed.

What It Could Mean for Motor Carriers

The practical effect will likely be limited because few pre-1993 trailers remain in active service. Carriers operating older equipment should nevertheless wait for the final rule and its effective date before removing or discontinuing required conspicuity treatments.

Existing lighting, marking and conspicuity requirements for newer trailers would remain in place.

2. Changing the Definition of Medical Treatment in Accident Reporting

Estimated likelihood: Very high

FMCSA is preparing a final rule to revise how “medical treatment” is defined when determining whether a commercial motor vehicle accident must be recorded.

Currently, an accident may meet FMCSA’s recordable crash definition when a person receives medical treatment away from the scene. The planned change is part of FMCSA’s effort to remove regulations the agency has characterized as burdensome. Publication was projected for July.

Why This Rule Ranks Second

Like the retroreflective sheeting rule, this change is:

• Already at the final-rule stage.
• Narrowly focused on one regulatory definition.
• Deregulatory rather than expansive.
• Unlikely to require extensive new technology or state-level implementation.

The main issue is not whether FMCSA has authority to define a recordable accident, but exactly where the agency will draw the line between medical evaluation and qualifying medical treatment.

What It Could Mean for Motor Carriers

A revised definition could affect which crashes must be entered into a carrier’s accident register.

Depending on the final language, some events involving off-site evaluation or minor treatment may no longer meet the federal recordkeeping threshold. This could affect:

• Accident-register entries
• Internal crash reporting procedures
• Safety performance reviews
• Insurance and claims documentation
• Decisions about preventability investigations

Carriers should not assume that a crash is non-recordable simply because this rule is pending. Continue applying the current definition until a final rule becomes effective.

3. Finalizing the Agricultural Commodity Hours-of-Service Definitions

Estimated likelihood: High

FMCSA plans to issue a final rule clarifying the terms “any agricultural commodity,” “livestock” and “non-processed food” for purposes of the agricultural commodity hours-of-service exception.

Unlike many items on the agenda, this rule would finalize an interim final rule originally published in 2020. Publication is projected by the end of November.

Why This Rule Ranks Third

The regulation has a strong chance of moving forward because the underlying definitions have already been through an interim rulemaking process.

FMCSA is not starting with a blank sheet of paper. The agency is primarily converting an existing interim framework into a fully final rule.

That generally presents fewer procedural obstacles than:

• Creating an entirely new HOS exception
• Rewriting daily driving limits
• Modifying the ELD mandate
• Establishing a new enforcement program

What It Could Mean for Agricultural Carriers

The final rule could provide greater certainty about which shipments qualify for the agricultural commodity exception and where the exemption applies.

Agricultural carriers should pay particular attention to:

• Whether their cargo meets the final commodity definition.
• Where the 150-air-mile exemption begins and ends.
• Whether processing changes the product’s eligibility.
• How drivers document exempt and non-exempt portions of a trip.
• When ELD or records-of-duty-status requirements begin.

The final rule may clarify the language, but it will not eliminate the need to document why a specific movement qualifies for the exception.

4. Hazmat Endorsement Flexibility for Agricultural Aircraft Fuel

Estimated likelihood: Moderately high

FMCSA is considering a limited exception involving the transportation of Jet A fuel for seasonal agricultural aircraft operations.

The rule responds to a petition from the National Agricultural Aviation Association. It would allow states to waive the hazardous materials endorsement requirement for certain CDL holders transporting no more than 1,000 gallons of Jet A fuel in support of agricultural aircraft operations, subject to specified conditions. The final rule was projected for July.

Why This Rule Ranks Fourth

The proposal is narrowly tailored to a specific operation, fuel and quantity. That makes it more likely to advance than a broad exemption from CDL hazardous materials requirements.

Factors supporting publication include:

• Final-rule status
• A defined seasonal industry need
• Limited operating conditions
• State discretion over whether to use the waiver
• A specific maximum quantity of fuel

It ranks below the first three because hazardous materials transportation involves additional safety and security considerations.

What It Could Mean for Agricultural Operations

The final rule would not necessarily create an automatic nationwide exemption.

States may be permitted, but not required, to issue the waiver. Agricultural aviation businesses would still need to review:

• State adoption of the waiver
• Quantity limitations
• CDL class requirements
• Tank vehicle endorsement requirements
• Hazmat shipping paper and marking rules
• Driver training requirements
• Fuel handling and emergency response procedures

A driver who does not need a hazmat endorsement under the waiver may still be subject to other federal and state hazardous materials regulations.

5. Railroad Crossing Rules for Hazmat and Passenger-Carrying CMVs

Estimated likelihood: Moderately high

FMCSA plans to revise the rules that apply when certain commercial vehicles approach highway-rail grade crossings.

The final rule would eliminate the mandatory stop currently required for certain hazmat and passenger-carrying commercial vehicles. Instead, all CMV drivers would be prohibited from entering a crossing without exercising due caution, including slowing when necessary to determine whether there is sufficient clearance. The final rule was projected for July.

Why This Rule Ranks Fifth

The proposal has several characteristics that make publication reasonably likely:

• It is in the final-rule stage.
• It addresses a specific operating rule.
• It replaces a categorical stopping requirement with a due-caution standard.
• Its projected publication date is earlier than many other agenda items.

However, any change involving railroad crossings, passenger vehicles and hazardous materials will receive close safety scrutiny. Questions about driver judgment, visibility, stopping distance and enforcement could still delay or alter the final language.

What It Could Mean for Drivers

Drivers should not interpret the proposed change as permission to approach railroad crossings at normal roadway speed.

If finalized, the regulation would likely shift the focus from automatically stopping to demonstrating that the driver exercised appropriate caution. Motor carriers may need to update:

• Driver training materials
• Railroad-crossing policies
• Hazmat operating procedures
• Passenger-carrier safety manuals
• Dash-camera review standards
• Corrective action training

The current stopping rules remain enforceable until a final rule takes effect.

Which Regulation Just Missed the Top Five?

6. Increased CDL Testing Flexibility

The CDL testing flexibility final rule is the strongest candidate outside the top five.

The rule would allow State Driver Licensing Agencies to administer a CDL knowledge test before issuing a commercial learner’s permit. It would also allow an agency to administer a CDL skills test to a CLP holder domiciled in another state. Publication is projected by the end of November.

This rule could have a greater operational impact than several regulations in the top five, especially for CDL schools, third-party testing sites and applicants who live near state borders.

It ranks slightly lower for probability because interstate testing creates additional administrative questions involving:

• Identity verification
• State record transfers
• CDLIS reporting
• Testing oversight
• Fraud prevention
• Coordination between licensing agencies

Nevertheless, CDL schools and testing providers should closely monitor this rule.

Stay Prepared for Changing DOT Regulations

CNS helps motor carriers understand new FMCSA requirements, review company policies, train drivers and identify compliance gaps before they result in violations.

Contact Compliance Navigation Specialists to schedule a DOT compliance review and make sure your operation is prepared for the regulatory changes ahead.